October 2009

1. Overview

This policy paper outlines an integrated program of ‘conservation response’ to climate change in sub-Saharan Africa. The response includes measures to reduce carbon emissions (mitigation[1]), to support wildlife and human adaptations[2]to ameliorate the negative impacts of climate change, and to strengthen monitoring [3]and understanding of biodiversity-climate change linkages in Africa.

The African Wildlife Foundation aims to address the linkages between climate change, biodiversity conservation and livelihoods in order to help human and biological systems cope with climate change-related stresses and enable ecosystems to contribute to climate change mitigation. AWF recognises the urgent need to tackle the underlying causes of climate change in parallel with dealing with its consequences, and to do so equitably, and all within a ‘state of scientific knowledge’ about linkages that is far from complete.

Figure 1: AWF Priority Landscapes

The African Wildlife Foundation is the leading Africa-based international conservation organisation, with nearly fifty years experience of facilitating practical, field-based solutions to global and local sustainable natural resource management challenges in Africa.

AWF’s African Heartlands Program is a large landscape-scale conservation program currently operational in nine priority conservation landscapes, known as Heartlands, across fourteen countries in sub-Saharan Africa (see Figure 1). AWF agrees with the International Panel on Climate Change that a large landscape approach increases chances of mitigating and responding to climate variability and change.[4] The current Heartlands contain vast functioning ecosystems of great relevance to both containing and adapting to climate change, including a significant area of the Congo Basin forest system. Six of the nine Heartlands are transboundary landscapes, and all are focused on delivering sustainable local solutions to the challenges of integrating resource management with the need for economic growth, livelihoods and social justice throughout Africa.

2. The Extent of the Problem

2.1 Global Warming and Climate Instability

Our planet is warming more rapidly than has ever been recorded before and climatic instability is increasing, particularly in terms of rainfall patterns. Historical records confirm warming of approximately 0.7^o over most of Africa during the 20^th century and scientists expect further increases over Africa of 0.2 ^oC per decade (low scenario) to more than 0.5 ^oC (high scenario) - significantly greater warming than the global mean predictions. Under the status quo scenario, these changes are expected to accelerate over the coming decades, though regional changes will vary greatly.

Global scientific consensus is that this temperature change is largely driven by consistently elevated levels of heat-trapping gasses in the atmosphere (e.g, CO₂) generated principally by carbon emissions from fossil fuel combustion and conversion of forests. Most historic and current carbon emissions stem from fossil fuel consumption (notably in the industrial, transport and buildings sectors), yet an estimated 20% of emissions are due to deforestation, meaning that the management of natural systems, particularly forest systems, cannot be left out of climate change responses. While northern countries have benefited hugely from the development gains represented by past carbon emissions, southern countries, and notably those in sub-Saharan Africa, will be pressured to find low-carbon (and therefore more expensive) development paths but also are likely to bear the brunt of the negative impacts of climate change, many of which are already evident.

In either historical or current volumes, Africa consumes a tiny share of the world’s fossil fuels. That said, there is still plenty of scope, if investment is available, for strengthening the fossil fuel efficiency of Africa’s economic growth and for developing renewable energy sources notably solar and hydro power.

2.2 Mitigation by African Ecosystems

The role of natural ecosystems in prevention and mitigation is now being recognized in preparation for the forthcoming Copenhagen Conference of Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC COP15), with strong anticipation of ‘Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and/or Degradation’ (REDD) being formally adopted and financed as a legitimate national level mitigation strategy within UNFCCC and its eventual full integration into the Kyoto Protocol. However, there are still important hurdles to overcome in terms of implementing REDD approaches, notably in terms of a) dealing with the issue of ‘leakage’ e.g. deforestation shifts to other locations, b) compensating countries with good conservation records as opposed to current proposals which will channel most REDD funding to countries with high recent deforestation, c) effective policy tools that enable national level REDD carbon targets and funding to be translated into local ‘compensation’ for carbon conservation and d) concerns that the growing focus on REDD may reduce pressure on northern countries to set and achieve ambitious carbon reduction targets at home.

The rapid development of official and voluntary carbon markets in Europe and the US has created a new framework for financing carbon emission reduction, with a growing interest in finding mechanisms that can finance projects in Africa. Because ‘natural’ carbon is currently excluded from the Kyoto Protocol’s Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and recognizing the high costs of compliance and lengthy timeframes associated with many official CDM-compliant carbon schemes, many conservation organizations are pursuing their own voluntary carbon offset programmes. Furthermore, sound standards are now emerging for the voluntary carbon market, such as the Voluntary Carbon Standard (VCS) and the Climate, Community and Biodiversity Project Design Standards (CCB), which also, and importantly, integrates biodiversity and social impact assessment, but also has fairly high costs of compliance (certification is done through international private sector companies) which therefore excludes small, local schemes.

2.3 Climate Change Impact

Due to its expansive aridity, the emphasis on natural resource-based development, and the limited resources available to cope with impacts, the African continent is believed to be the most vulnerable to the consequences of climate change. Predictive climate change models for Africa suffer from having limited background data on existing climate variability and relationships to social and ecological vulnerability, and therefore are less confident as to where and who will be most affected. This is an important constraint to the development of appropriate adaptation strategies.

According to the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment reports, climate change is predicted to become the biggest single driver of terrestrial biodiversity loss over the next 50–100 years, bigger than loss of habitat, over-exploitation, and introduction of invasive species.  In Africa, 25%–42% of plant species are projected to lose all their habitat by 2085 and 10–40% of mammals are projected to fall within the critically endangered or extinct categories by 2080. Africa contains about a fifth of all known species of plants, mammals and birds in the world, and a sixth of known amphibians and reptiles. Climate change will alter species habitats compelling attempts to shift ranges and migration patterns. Some species will be unable to evolve or shift their range quickly enough to persist; others will decline in number significantly. Temperature rises will be associated with increased climate volatility, including more frequent extreme conditions such as droughts and floods.

In Africa the direct impacts on biological systems are expected to include: increased altered hydrologic regimes; altered precipitation patterns; more rapid desertification; sea level rise yielding increased coastal erosion; and dramatic disappearance of glaciers. Indirect impacts will include: freshwater stress and scarcity; saline water movement inland; and coral bleaching. The elevated sea level is expected to swamp many coastal areas and low-lying countries, in the process flooding once fertile agricultural fields and displacing people. Already, salt-water contamination during the dry season has been observed 80km upstream of the Zambezi River and up to 120km upstream of the Gambia River. The likely scale of impact of all these changes on ecosystems and the human populations they support will be monumental and is expected to affect the poor disproportionately, though as yet no predictive model has wide credibility.

Climate change-driven impacts on biological systems will pose major threats to livelihoods in Africa, both directly and through complex interactions between drivers such as population growth and globalization. People will be impacted directly by a growing number and frequency of extreme climatic events including floods, droughts and storms, as well as indirectly by the negative impacts of biodiversity losses and degraded ecosystem services[5]. Large, segments of the population will face increased food insecurity; increased livelihoods vulnerability (especially for those dependent on agriculture); and increased spread and prevalence of certain diseases. As many will lack the resources to adapt to these stresses in dire situations such as the pain felt from the current drought in Kenya will become more common. The loss of species and biodiversity will have dramatic impacts on key economic sectors including agriculture, fisheries and tourism. Pastoralism, practiced across two-fifths of Africa’s land mass and often compatible with sustainable resource management, will be hit particularly hard by desertification, prolonged droughts, and increased competition for resources. Some Southern African countries are projected to suffer reductions in agricultural yield of up to 50% with small scale farms hit hardest.

3. The AWF Response Strategy

AWF recognizes that it has a significant role to play in supporting and developing an African-led response to climate change. In addition to spearheading carbon emission reductions in conservation work through reduced fossil fuel consumption, adoption of new technologies, reforestation and prevention of land degradation and deforestation, AWF needs to lead the way in supporting ecosystem-based adaptation to climate change impacts, and improved understanding and monitoring of climate change at ecosystem level.

1. Improve understanding and monitoring of climate change in AWF Heartlands

Preliminary data collection and GIS mapping is underway to assess impact of climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem function in AWF Heartlands using primary and secondary data. The AWF PIMA monitoring system now tracks climate change agents such as deforestation, fire, and broad changes in vegetation cover. However, available information is frustratingly unclear as to likely rainfall and temperature scenarios, particularly at sub-national level. AWF is encouraging a scaling up of African-led research work into climate change impacts to help guide future climate change responses. This year AWF initiated an impact assessment project in Virunga Heartland, and the methodology developed in partnership with EcoAdapt, and with funding from the MacArthur Foundation, will be disseminated for discussion and replication into other Heartlands.

2. Focus at landscape scale to promote ecosystem-based adaptation

We believe that enabling adaptation to climate change is going to be AWF’s most challenging and important area of work over the coming decade. Extensive climate change now appears inevitable, and the priority must be to enable and encourage pro-poor and pro-conservation adaptation – of resource management, resource use and livelihoods. Ongoing work in the Maringa Lopori Wamba Heartland in the Congo basin includes the creation of the new Lomako Forest Reserve with local and national support to protect the forest and the species in it, and a riverine agricultural trade project with support for improved farming in designated areas across the landscape to reduce slush and burn. Reforestation work in community forest areas of Kilimanjaro and Samburu Heartlands, support for sustainable harvesting of timber in Kazungula Heartland, and support for improved grazing management regimes across pastoralist areas of eastern African Heartlands are examples of AWF adaptation interventions at ecosystem scale. However, much more needs to be done to build the climate change resilience of ecosystems and their dependent human and wildlife populations.

3. Mitigate terrestrial carbon emissions by encouraging landscape scale conservation

AWF believes that avoided deforestation and other measures to ensure terrestrial carbon sequestration will play a significant role in climate change mitigation, and supports the formalization of a global carbon market which will create transparency and equity in pricing and payments, and will reward countries that prioritize conservation and social benefits along with carbon sales. AWF is consulting with stakeholders, including private sector carbon trading organisations, to develop a series of pilot VCS+CCB compliant projects to support ‘avoided deforestation’ and integrate carbon, biodiversity and livelihoods targets. These pilot activities currently include carbon easements in two sites in Kenya, a national REDD pilot project in Tanzania and a carbon feasibility study in DR Congo, with a significant scaling up of this work envisaged in the coming year.

4. Help African countries gain access to clean and efficient technologies

AWF aims to support African efforts to leap over inefficient technologies and embrace newer, fuel efficient technologies including stoves, solar power, biogas and wireless communications to reduce the carbon-intensity of development. AWF is working with partners at landscape level to pilot and replicate these approaches, and at policy level to encourage their uptake. AWF offices follow an agreed ‘Environmental Code of Practice’ that addresses actions to improve the environmental performance of AWF and its partners in Africa in terms of energy consumption and sourcing.

5. Provide training and capacity to African countries to deal with climate change

AWF is working to build the capacity of local and government partners to adopt ecosystem-based adaptation approaches, participate in forest carbon markets and adopt fuel efficient technologies.

6. Get the financing mechanisms right

Huge investment is needed in climate change mitigation, adaptation and monitoring in Africa. AWF is participating in dialogue and meetings with those designing the financing mechanisms to ensure they adequately encourage sustainable ecosystem functions, reward sound conservation practices and deliver equitable benefits to local people

[1] Mitigation: an intervention by humans to reduce the sources or to enhance the sinks of greenhouse gases (e.g., increase use of renewable energy sources, strengthen forest management, reduce deforestation)

[2] Adaptation: adjustments in natural or human systems in response to actual expected climatic stimuli or their effects (e.g. improve water management, support livelihoods strategy diversification, and strengthen payments for ecosystem services).

[3] Monitoring: improve data collection and analysis (e.g., for affordable baseline carbon measurement methodologies).

[4] IPCC 2007

[5] Ecosystem services: benefits people receive from functioning, intact ecosystems. Benefits may include clean food, water, and air as well as regulating services such as flood and disease control..